By now you're no doubt exhausted and annoyed with this seemingly eternal race for the nomination on the Democratic side. It's clear to anyone watching that Obama has a virtually unassailable lead, and that the only way for Hillary to win is to somehow cajole (i.e. threaten castration) the remaining undecided superdelegates to her side. She will not win by gaining a remaining of delegates in the ensuing races. She will not win by gaining the popular vote. She can only gain by stealing the nomination.
This is perfect news for Barack Obama.
Although it may seem like the longer the Democratic Party remains unable to choose a nominee, the greater the chances McCain has to seal the the deal for the general election, the opposite is possibly true. Here are five reasons why:
1.) The longer Hillary remains in the fight despite this prolonged death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts defeat she is entering, the more the media shines the light on both her and Barack. This is perfect for the Obama campaign because it allows him to essentially focus his attacks on one person rather than at a whole party and platform as he will have to do against the GOP and McCain, and sharpen his overall populist message. It also gives him more free press. Something has to fill the airwaves over at those 24/7 news channels, and a big story like this is perfect.
2.) A lengthy intra-party fight is a good thing for the Democratic Party. It has to happen sometime. And you know, I love the fact that Hillary refuses to go down easy. I love it because when she ultimately does crash, it will be spectacular. And in one epic swoop, the fading remnants of the party will fall away like dead skin. Obama has thus far pulled millions of voters out of nowhere--he is growing the party. The only thing holding him and this new force back is the Old Guard. Once Hillary is defeated, watch even more people come out in droves.
3.) All this Clinton nastiness is only giving Obama the practice he needs to go against the GOP. I have a weird theory that probably makes no sense. I think it's possible the Clintons are trashing Obama for the purpose of getting everything out in the open now (ex. that photo of him dressed in the Kenyan garb). It's far better something bad comes out now than in October right before the election. I'm not saying the Clintons are doing this on purpose. It may be unwitting on their part. But in the end Obama will wind up way better prepared to survive a GOP onslaught.
4.) If the nomination proceeds to the convention, it could possibly give Obama a mere nine weeks to win in November. Not to knock on McCain's age, but the guy ain't exactly a young buck anymore. In nine weeks Barack Obama, all of 46, could dash around this country like a man on fire and stir up enough passion that voters just might elect him in a landslide come November. Considering all the press he's garnered and will garner between now and then, Obama will simply overwhelm McCain in terms of overall favorability. Not that a mere nine weeks is a long enough time to establish a national platform, but McCain's been a household name for almost ten years and Obama still beats him in national polls. People know what they're getting with McCain. Obama, not so much. But that mystery combined with his charisma and charm is precisely what drives his poll numbers, his online donations, and press sex appeal.
Finally, and most importantly:
5.) In order to be the man, you have to beat the man. Well, in this case, the woman. Six months ago, could you have imagined that a two year first term senator from Illinois would be beating Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination? Could you imagine him eluding, outwitting, and outstrategizing a former president, the presumptive nominee, seducing the press onto his side, building a powerful coalition, and not having to take any money from lobbyists or the fed? It's no small task. If Obama wins the nomination, he secures control of the Democratic party, but only temporarily. If he wins the election, he becomes the new bubba. And after all that nastiness, all that Clinton kitchen sink treatment, he's only going to end up looking stronger than before.
All that and more, if he wins.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
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1 comments:
It was Somali garb, not Kenyan.
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